Characteristics of Cycles

Uploaded by : DreamGains Financials, Posted on : 22 Sep 2016



Larger cycles can be broken down into smaller, and equal, cycles. A 40-week cycle divides in to two 20-week cycles. A 20-week cycle divides into two 10-week cycles. Sometimes a larger cycle can divide into three or more parts. The inverse is also true. Small cycles can multiply into larger cycles. A 10-week cycle can be part of a larger 20-week cycle and even larger 40-week cycle.


Lows are usually used to define the length of a cycle and project the cycle into the future. A cycle high can be expected somewhere between the cycle lows.


Cycles almost never peak at the exact midpoint nor trough at the expected cycle low. Most often, peaks occur before or after the midpoint of the cycle. Right translation is the tendency of prices to peak in the latter part of the cycle during bull markets. Conversely, left translation is the tendency of prices to peak in the front half of the cycle during bear markets. Prices tend to peak later in bull markets and earlier in bear markets.


A cycle low is reinforced when several cycles signal a trough at the same time. The 10-week, 20-week and 40-week cycles are nesting when they all trough at the same time.


Sometimes a cycle high occurs when there should be a cycle low and visa-versa. This can happen when a cycle high or low is skipped or is minimal. A cycle low may be short or almost non-existent in a strong uptrend. Similarly, markets can fall fast and skip a cycle high during sharp declines. Inversions are more prominent with shorter cycles and less common with longer cycles. For instance, one could expect more inversions with a 10-week cycle than a 40-week cycle.